27 May 2016
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his policies are set to get a boost this week after voters elected a parliament that favors reform. While Rouhani’s reformists didn’t win a majority of seats, it appears likely that the “moderate” independents also elected will side with his faction, giving the reformists an effective majority in the parliament for the first time since 2004.
25 May 2016
Disgruntled Icelanders recently forced their prime minister to quit, and are threatening to hand power to self-styled pirates at an early election. However, whereas other European voters are culling traditional parties out of weakness, Reykjavik’s are rebelling out of strength.
25 May 2016
It seems that not a day goes by without another Brexit economic forecast – whether it is one from the Treasury, the OECD or Economists for Brexit. Some say it will cost Britain to leave; others say it will be beneficial to the UK economy.
25 May 2016
For investors, the most important thing about the successful review of Greece's implementation of last year's agreement is that it effectively removes it from the list of potential disruptive factors in the coming quarters. There will be no repeat of last year's drama.
Assuming Greece resolves a few outstanding issues in the next few days, it will be given roughly 7.5 bln euros next month and another three bln euros over the summer. The funds will be in Greece's hands for the shortest of periods.
23 May 2016
Over 90 pages, the British Treasury’s latest referendum attempts to identify the short-term economic effects of a vote to leave on June 23 – aka Brexit. When the Treasury tweeted the publication late on the morning of May 23 it was billed a “detailed and rigorous analysis on the immediate impact of leaving the EU”. So how does it stack up?
19 May 2016
This is an abridged version of this article. For the full article please see here.
I was in Belgium in 2011-2012, when I witnessed the escalating ferocity with which the sovereign debt crisis undermined confidence and economic activity across the Eurozone. Four years later, in 2016, economic recovery from the crisis continues to remain fragile - with highly lackluster or tepid growth having become endemic in the Eurozone.
5 May 2016
It has been long recognized by the investment community that power in Turkey was concentrated in Erdogan's hands. He enjoys incredible power in the ceremonial presidential post and brooks no rivals.
Common among authoritarian leaders is that they habitually turn on handpicked successors, as they grow fearful of competitors. This is precisely what has played out in Turkey in recent days and now has come to a head.
4 May 2016
Saudi Arabia has released details of its Vision 2030 – an immensely ambitious plan that Salman says will end the Kingdom’s dependence on oil by 2020.
3 May 2016
It might not be on investors' calendars, but European officials will take steps toward addressing two issues tomorrow. First, the EC will make a preliminary recommendation of visa-free travel in the Schengen area for Turkish passport holders. Second, the ECB governing council will hold a non-monetary policy meeting. It is expected to discuss the future of the 500-euro note.
2 May 2016
The Iran nuclear deal is effective. Yet, Iran’s efforts to attract foreign investment and accelerate growth and prosperity face new hurdles, which seem to reflect Washington’s efforts to dent the agreement.
Last January, the nuclear agreement between, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, China, France, Russia, UK), plus Germany and the EU became effective. However, will this agreement allow Iran to attract substantial foreign investment and reanimate its dormant oil fields?